Triple M Formula: There is a stir in the politics of Bihar, because Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is making every possible effort to end the exile of power for the last two decades. This time the responsibility of RJD’s comeback lies on the shoulders of Tejashwi Yadav, who is considered the political heir of Lalu Yadav. Tejashwi, who missed reaching the threshold of power last time, this time has his eyes set on the triple ‘M-factor’, by achieving which he can sit on the throne of Bihar.
The fight for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections seems to be mainly between the Nitish Kumar-led NDA and the grand alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav, although parties like Jan Suraj and AIMIM are trying to make it triangular. ‘Triple-M factor’ is considered very important in the politics of Bihar, which is seen as Muslim, women and most backward voters. It is not possible for Tejashwi Yadav to win the electoral battle without conquering these three vote banks, because Nitish Kumar has remained in power for the last twenty years through these women and extremely backward votes.
Muslim Factor: Owaisi-PK’s dent in core votebank
Bihar has approximately 18 percent Muslim population, which has the power to make or break the game of any party. Out of the total 243 assembly seats in the state, there are about 48 seats where Muslim voters decide the victory or defeat. Traditionally, Muslim votes in Bihar are considered to be the core votebank of RJD, but now everyone from Asaduddin Owaisi to Prashant Kishore’s party is eyeing these votes. The challenge has arisen for Tejashwi Yadav to maintain his strong hold on Muslim votes. In view of this challenge, Tejashwi had talked about abolishing the Waqf law in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal area. Apart from this, the constituent parties of the Grand Alliance are assuring the Muslims that if the government is formed, a Deputy CM can also be made from the Muslim community. By terming Owaisi and Prashant Kishor as BJP’s B-team, the grand alliance is working on a strategy to prevent Muslim votes from going with them.
Women Factor: Nitish’s ‘silent game changer’
Only women voters are deciding the condition and direction of power in Bihar. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has remained in power for 20 years with the help of these women votes. These women voters, who constitute half of the total population of Bihar, are seen ahead of men in the voting pattern. This is the reason why it is not possible for Tejashwi Yadav to occupy the throne of power without securing women votes.
There are approximately 3.5 crore women voters in Bihar. Both PM Modi and CM Nitish Kumar consider women voters as the biggest ‘game changer’. In view of this, Tejashwi Yadav has made many big announcements for women. He has promised that after coming to power, the services of about 1 crore 32 lakh ‘Jeevika Didis’ will be regularized with a monthly salary of Rs 30,000. Apart from this, women have also been promised Rs 2500 per month as pension. This is being seen as a direct cut to NDA’s ‘Rs 10,000 in every woman’s account’ scheme.
Most Backward (MBC) Voter: The New Key to Power
Most Backward is considered to be the most important factor in the politics of Bihar, which is also called extremely backward caste. The extremely backward population in Bihar is 36 percent, which includes about 114 castes. In terms of population, it is being said that the key to power is now in the hands of the most backward caste. Nitish Kumar has been in power for 20 years by exploiting the most backward castes, but now his hold has weakened. In such a situation, Tejashwi Yadav is now trying to woo him. That is why Tejashwi has made Mukesh Sahni, who comes from Nishad community, the face of Deputy CM.
Tejashwi has promised to provide a lump sum interest-free amount of Rs 5 lakh for 5 years for self-employment, economic upliftment and advancement of hardworking castes like barbers, potters, carpenters, blacksmiths, gardeners and cobblers. Apart from this, Rahul Gandhi has also issued a separate manifesto for the most backward castes. Overall, if this ‘Triple-M’ factor equation of Tejashwi Yadav is successful, then he can occupy the throne of Bihar by ending the political exile of RJD for 20 years.
