New Delhi, February 27 (IANS). Facing a severe memory supply crunch, global smartphone shipments ended 2025 with modest single-digit year-on-year growth. This increase was possible due to better macroeconomic conditions and strong demand during the holiday season.
Global smartphone shipments grew 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. This was the fourth consecutive quarter when the market saw improvement. Additionally, it was the strongest holiday quarter since 2021. Most regions, except China and Eastern Europe, recorded year-on-year growth.
However, according to Counterpoint Research, the market may see a major decline in 2026. The report estimates that smartphone shipments could decline by 12.4 percent year-on-year in 2026, which would be the largest annual decline ever.
According to the report, memory shortage, rapidly rising component prices and structural weaknesses of lower-end OEM companies will put pressure on the market in 2026. This decline may continue through 2027 and a recovery is expected in late 2027, when additional memory capacity becomes available.
Yang Wang, principal analyst at Counterpoint, said, “The impact is expected to last until the second half of 2027, as it will take several quarters for memory supply to increase. Low-end smartphones in particular may be most affected, especially as the supply of LPDDR4 memory is decreasing faster than expected.”
He said that OEM companies are already taking steps like delaying new launches, limited product portfolio and changes in specifications. Some Android OEM portfolios have also seen price increases of 10 to 20 percent in January 2026.
The main reason for the current decline is a deep imbalance in the memory supply chain. Manufacturers are devoting a large portion of their wafer capacity to higher-margin AI-focused DRAM and enterprise SSD NAND.
According to the report, not all parts of the market will be affected equally. The premium segment may remain relatively strong and register single digit growth, while the sub-$200 smartphone segment is likely to decline by more than 20 percent.
The report said that Apple and Samsung can face this crisis better due to strong supply chains, better pricing capabilities and focus on premium products.
–IANS
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