New Delhi, March 6 (IANS). The bulk of India’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are still linked to the Strait of Hormuz. About 69 per cent of India’s total LNG imports in 2025, i.e. about 17.5 million tonnes (63 mmscmd), are expected to come from West Asian countries like Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, transiting through or around the Strait of Hormuz. This information has come to light in the report of brokerage firm Elara Capital released on Friday.
Even if GAIL’s US LNG swap volumes are adjusted for, India’s effective dependence remains around 66 per cent, analysts at brokerage firm Elara Capital said in the report. This means that India’s dependence on this sector is very high and this poses supply risks.
The report said that if there is any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, it could have a gradual impact on the entire gas sector. Its impact can be seen across the utilization of LNG terminals, gas transmission and profits of industrial sectors.
The highest risk at the terminal level is seen at Petronet LNG’s Dahej terminal. The terminal handled approximately 14.8 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, of which 76 percent came via the Strait of Hormuz.
Furthermore, smaller terminals such as Kochi and Chhara are completely dependent on gas coming from the Middle East. At the same time, Mundra (88 percent), Dhamra (65 percent) and Enor (62 percent) terminals are also largely dependent on this route, due to which the risk on them is high.
However, Hazira (25 per cent) and Dabhol (0 per cent) terminals have some relief, as the LNG coming here mainly comes from the US, Russia and Australia.
The report said that the supply shock may hit Petronet LNG (PLNG) and Gujarat State Petronet the most.
PLNG has about 77 percent dependence on the Hormuz route, which could directly impact its regasification income. The company has also issued force majeure notice to GAIL, IOCL and BPCL citing the disruption at the Ras Laffan plant in Qatar.
At the same time, about 62 percent of the transmission volume of Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS) for the year 2025 is also dependent on this route, due to which the company is also at similar risk.
According to the report, Gujarat Gas Limited (GGL) may also be affected at both margin and volume levels. About 73 per cent of the company’s total gas supply comes from LNG, which is mainly supplied to the industrial cluster of Morbi.
The report said GGL has a 48 percent dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, so rising LNG prices in the spot market could reduce the company’s competitiveness against alternative fuels like propane.
According to the brokerage firm, the company has issued a force majeure notice to industrial customers and has decided to reduce gas supply from March 6, 2026. Also, Daily Contracted Quantity (DCQ) can also be reduced for industrial customers.
The report said GAIL’s marketing segment is in the strongest position as its dependence on the Hormuz route is only 16 per cent.
The company has diverse gas supply contracts from the US, Russia and Australia, thereby reducing the risk to a great extent. According to the brokerage, the actual dependence is estimated to be around 30 percent.
–IANS
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