New Delhi, May 28 (IANS). A new report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office warns that global average temperatures could remain at or near record levels during the next five years. The report also said that temperature rise in the Arctic region is likely to be higher than the global average.
According to the report, the global average temperature between 2026 and 2030 could be 1.3 degrees Celsius to 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the average level of the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). However, the average temperature over the next five years is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, but this will not be seen as a violation of the Paris Agreement, as the agreement assumes a long-term temperature increase of about 20 years.
The report said that there is an 86 percent chance of any one year between 2026 and 2030 becoming the hottest year ever, surpassing 2024.
Furthermore, there is a 91 percent chance that there will be at least one year during this period when the global average surface temperature temporarily exceeds pre-industrial levels by 1.5 degrees Celsius.
It is noteworthy that even in the year 2024, the global average surface temperature was recorded to be about 1.55 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial level.
“El Niño conditions are projected to persist by the end of 2026, increasing the likelihood that 2027 will become a record-breaking warm year,” said Dr. Leon Hermansson, lead author of the report.
According to the report, temperature projections for the next five years in the Nino 3.4 region of the central tropical Pacific Ocean point towards El Nino-like conditions, especially in 2027 and 2028.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries have set a goal of keeping the increase in global average surface temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and making efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The scientific community has consistently warned that if temperature increases exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events could be more severe. Besides, this will also reduce the possibilities of adaptation to climate change.
–IANS
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