Latest fall in rupee and RBI’s stance
The Indian Rupee has registered a major decline in recent times. The rupee has reached close to Rs 91 against the US dollar, while its value has come down to around Rs 25 against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) currency AED. This time, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has clearly refused to control the rupee rate, leading to speculations that the value of the rupee may fall further.
Performance of rupee in 2025
The last year, 2025, was disappointing for the Indian rupee. The rupee ended 2025 with an annual decline of 4.72%, its weakest annual performance since 2022. This reflects the weak position of the rupee which continues to be under pressure and raises concerns for the future.
Current status and near-term forecasts
Currently, the rupee is trading at Rs 90.85 against the US dollar. Various analysts believe that this decline may continue. According to some of the most pessimistic views, the rupee may soon fall to Rs 92, making imports costlier and putting pressure on the Indian economy.
Rupee forecasts for 2026
Rupee forecasts for 2026 vary, but most signs point to further weakness. 35 economists in a Bloomberg survey see the rupee rising to 89.42 per dollar by the end of the year. At the same time, NDF Markets predicts that the rupee may weaken to 95 by the end of 2026. Most analysts’ consensus remains in the range of 90-91 per dollar, but the 95 figure is a serious warning.
Causes of decline and possible recourse
The main reasons for pressure on the rupee are regular corporate dollar purchases, US tariffs and capital outflows. These factors increase demand for dollars and weaken the rupee. However, strong economic growth, low inflation and strategic intervention by the RBI (even if prohibited at present) could provide significant support to the rupee. These factors will have to be kept a close eye in future.
Last Updated: 19 January 2026
