Assembly elections of five states are a tough test of fate of the big satraps of both ruling party and opposition, the political existence of those who missed is in danger.
For the first time after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the assembly elections are in unfavorable grounds. Of the five poll-bound states, the central ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its NDA partner West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are not in power. It definitely has power in Assam and Adana-Puducherry, but on the strength of people and allies who broke away from other parties. However, BJP’s stakes are big in these two states. Assam is the foundation of its power in the entire North-East, if it is uprooted then everything can fall apart. Apart from the historical-political importance of the distinct variety of Puducherry, it is important for opening the doors for its penetration in the South, especially Tamil Nadu. On the other hand, for the survival and future politics of Congress and India Bloc parties, it is necessary that they prove that their political challenge is strong despite the disruptions in the voter list due to the very hostile government at the Center and the SIR process of the Election Commission. If they lose the battle on their grounds and despite being in power or having strong influence and favorable conditions, then question marks may arise on their future politics.
BJP’s bets
Look at the magic: Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma
These elections are even more important for BJP. It has to show success through strategies that utilize the power of the Center and the socio-political contradictions there to increase its penetration in the states without power. In the last Lok Sabha elections, despite the important issue of BJP-RSS like Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the huge setback showed that its core issues are no longer effective. After that, it prepared a different strategy to win the assembly elections, in which, according to the opposition, the alleged role of the Election Commission and the local administration became important. After the Lok Sabha elections, there was almost unanimous victory in the elections of Haryana, Maharashtra in late 2024 and Delhi and Bihar in 2025. He had power with his partners in Haryana, Maharashtra and Bihar, while the administrative power of Delhi was also largely in his hands. Now there are elections in those states where it does not have direct power, so it will have to be tested to show its success on the basis of the power of the Centre.
BJP’s roots are weak in these states. However, after coming to power at the Center in 2014, its vote percentage has been continuously increasing election after election in these states, whether it was due to defectors and small parties and efforts to settle the equations.
Assam: There it is being said that in reality the fight is between the Congressmen who broke away from the camp of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and the Congress of Gaurav Gogoi, the deputy leader of the party in the Lok Sabha, son of former Congress Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. The reason is that old workers and leaders of BJP and Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) have been sidelined, with some rebelling and standing as independents. Some also have the support of the Congress-led opposition alliance. Therefore, broadly the fight has turned into a competition between Sarma and Gogoi. Congress’s focus has also shifted to Sarma’s corruption. While Sarma alleges Gogoi’s wife’s alleged Pakistani links, Congress recently showed copies of passports of UAE, Egypt and Antigua and Barbuda in Sarma’s wife’s name and details of properties in Dubai. BJP threatened legal action.
Puducherry: BJP is a small ally in the union territory with only 30 assembly seats, but it suddenly came into existence by winning six seats in the 2021 elections. Broadly speaking, he is Chief Minister N. Rangaswamy’s NR is with the support of Congress. The contest is between Rangaswamy Congress and former Chief Minister Narayanaswamy Congress.
Kerala: BJP’s fight seems to be to show its presence by gaining some seats or increasing some vote percentage. However, BJP leaders are happy that both the ruling CPI(M)-led LDF and the opposition Congress-led UDF are accusing each other of nexus with the BJP. BJP’s Rajeev Chandrashekhar recently said, “Doesn’t this show that BJP is the issue?” Before this, it was not even discussed.” Becoming an issue can also be important for BJP because the deteriorating economic conditions in the country and the war in the Gulf countries are likely to have a significant impact in Kerala, where millions of people may lose their jobs in the Gulf. It is noteworthy that about 36 percent contribution in the economy of Kerala comes from the money sent by people from Gulf countries. If BJP becomes an issue in the elections there for other political reasons, then people’s attention may be diverted from it for its inability to handle the war situations and deteriorating financial condition. This may give him a chance to respond to such allegations of the opposition.
Tamil Nadu: BJP’s effort is to somehow increase its vote percentage and increase the seats in its constituency. According to some experts, its effort is also to defeat AIADMK and become the main opposition party by the next elections. At present, AIADMK is in the status of elder brother in NDA, but if there is no significant increase in its seats then it may be difficult. Therefore, perhaps BJP’s efforts to win over smaller parties in NDA include K.K. It plans to expand its reach with the help of small parties like Dinakaran and Anbumani Ramadoss’s party. After meeting Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi, both these leaders agreed to field their candidates on the BJP’s election symbol lotus. BJP has been adopting this strategy for its expansion in other states.
West Bengal: The real battle for the BJP lies here, where it has reached the role of the main opposition party in the 2021 elections. That’s why she doesn’t want to leave any stone unturned. But considering the hold of Trinamool Congress and the difference of about 10 percent votes and about 150 seats in the last elections, it seems that it is trying to gain control over the local administration by any means possible. Trinamool and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee allege that the BJP is using the powers of the Election Commission apart from the central agencies. The matter of Election Commission’s SIR is still stuck. There, the judicial officers have to give the verdict on the instructions of the Supreme Court in the names of about 60 lakh voters. Voting is scheduled there in two phases on 23 and 29 April. The date of filling the forms for the first phase is near and the voter list should be final, but there is a lot of confusion right now. 63 lakh names have already been deleted under SIR in Bengal.
Meanwhile, an incident of gherao of three judicial officers also took place in Malda, in which the alleged main accused, who had earlier contested elections on AIMIM ticket, was arrested by the local police from the airport. But the surprise came when the Election Commission immediately handed over the case to the NIA, whose scope is for terrorism related cases. Mamta alleges that the incident took place at the instigation of BJP, so that an issue could be created. Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also said in a rally, “The incident in Malda shows how serious the situation is in the state.” Districts like Malda, Murshidabad, West Dinajpur are Muslim dominated and it is here that there are maximum complaints of deletion of names from the voter list.
With the help of roads: Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata
Another recent incident also witnessed an attempt to control the local administration. When Shubhendu Adhikari, the Leader of Opposition in the Assembly, who is challenging Mamata Banerjee in Bhawanipur, Kolkata, came to file nomination along with Amit Shah on April 5, sloganeering broke out between Trinamool and BJP supporters on the way. On this, the Election Commission issued orders for immediate transfer of three DCPs for laxity in ‘law and order’. Before this, along with the announcement of election dates, the Commission has issued transfer orders of more than 60 officers including the Chief Secretary, Home Secretary, many police commissioners of Kolkata and surrounding areas, SP and DM of all the districts, which has never happened before in the entire country. So, it can be understood how high the stakes are.
Opposition or India Block’s test
Broadly speaking, the India block is scattered in these states or is face to face in Kerala and West Bengal. Apart from the equations of the states, these elections are very important for its central politics. Mamata’s Trinamool in Bengal or Chief Minister M.K. Stalin’s DMK cannot face defeat under any circumstances. A significant reduction in seats would not mean their downfall, but would be a threat to the existence of the India Bloc at the Centre. This will not only increase the dominance of BJP, but will also prepare the background for the next Lok Sabha elections in 2029.
Fighting tough in Kerala too
In Kerala, whether Congress or Left Front wins, it probably should not make any difference to the India Bloc, but the existence of Left parties may also be in trouble. On the other hand, if Congress wins or does well in Assam, then especially Rahul Gandhi can be more attacking on BJP. But defeat can bring trouble. Therefore, the challenge for the opposition is bigger than that of BJP.
Not only this, it will also impact the upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh and other states. Therefore, if the opposition has to remain relevant and respond to the BJP’s misuse of central power and the Election Commission, then these elections are do or die. Of course, for the BJP, these elections will also be a test of whether it can maintain control over the opposition ruled states through central agencies, governors, the Election Commission or influence the election results or not. Political commentator Parakala Prabhakar recently claimed through the analysis of Election Commission data that in the simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in 2024, about 16 percent of the votes were cast from 11 pm to 2 am, which led to an average increase of 7 percent votes and the NDA’s landslide victory.
However, the entire account is of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. The Center is going to take another first in this direction. A special session of Parliament is to be called on 16th and 17th April, in which there is a thought of bringing a constitutional amendment so that the seats of southern or less populous states are not reduced due to women’s reservation and delimitation. But the fear of the opposition is that even if the seats in the southern states do not decrease or even increase by some, as per an estimate, by 34-35, then the seats in the North-West, especially in the Hindi belt, may increase by more than 150. Due to this, the whole calculation of delimitation can change in favor of BJP and its allies. Delimitation will happen after the census. Now it remains to be seen whether it can be done before 2029 or not.
Therefore these elections are of high stakes. Keep an eye on the results.
