Bihar Election 2025: With the announcement of the dates of Bihar assembly elections, the political summer has been conceived. The Election Commission has finally announced the smallest election schedule in Bihar. This time, compared to the last three, five and six stages, this time the voting will be held in just two phases (6 and 11 November), while the results will be declared on 14 November.
This election will directly prove to be a political litmus test for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his party JDU. Despite the manner in which Nitish Kumar has changed the loyalty over the years, JDU has maintained its leading role in Bihar politics, but the party’s seats and vote stakes have been continuously decreasing. Especially in the last two assembly elections, JDU has lost its land at the hands of both its ally BJP and arch-rival RJD.
2010 ‘Golden Age’: When JDU became ‘Big Brother’
After the 15 -year RJD rule of Lalu Yadav and Rabri Devi from 1990 to 2005, Nitish Kumar took power in 2005. After a successful tenure, JDU received the strongest mandate ever in the 2010 assembly elections:
JDU: 115 seats (22.58% vote share). The party was in the role of ‘elder brother’ and fought in 141 seats.
BJP: 91 seats (16.49% vote share). The party fought 102 seats as ‘younger brother’.
At the same time, the RJD-LJP alliance got only 25 seats in the opposition camp, while the Congress won only four seats, which was its most disappointing performance.
2015 ‘Grand Alliance’: When RJD becomes the largest party
Political equations completely changed in 2015. Separating from the NDA, JDU formed a grand alliance with his traditional rival RJD and Congress. This alliance got tremendous success:
Grand Alliance: A total of 178 seats (41.84% vote share).
RJD: 80 seats (18.35% vote) emerged as the largest party.
JDU: 71 seats (16.83% vote), slipped to second place.
NDA: A total of 58 seats. The BJP got only 53 seats despite fighting 157 seats, although its vote share (24.42%) was about 6% more than RJD.
In this election, Nitish gained power by changing his colleagues, but his party came second in terms of seats.
2020 ‘twist’: decreasing seats, still CM’s chair
JDU returned to NDA in 2020. The election proved to be a turnover point for JDU, where his seats reached a record low.
NDA: A total of 125 seats, the majority barely crossed.
BJP: 74 seats (19.46% votes) became the second largest party.
JDU: 43 seats (15.39% votes), reached third place.
Grand Alliance: 110 seats, RJD became the largest party by winning 75 seats.
Despite being a third party in terms of seats, the BJP again made Nitish Kumar the Chief Minister due to commitment.
Current Status: JDU’s weak foundation
In January 2024, Nitish Kumar changed the alliance for the fourth time and returned to the NDA again. The move proved beneficial in the Lok Sabha elections, where the NDA won 30 seats.
The situation in the current 243 -member Bihar Legislative Assembly is as follows:
NDA (ruling party): JDU has 45 and BJP 78 MLAs, above the majority (122) with the support of an independent.
Grand Alliance (Opposition): There are 114 MLAs.
The biggest challenge for Nitish Kumar’s party JDU is to reinforce the party’s base in 2025 on this weak foundation of 45 seats. In these elections announced after the disputed revision (SIR) of voter lists, Nitish will not only have to keep his alliance united, but also to prove why he is still an indispensable face of Bihar politics. This election will decide in which direction his political journey started from 2010.
