New Delhi, April 13 (IANS). The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said rainfall in the country during the southwest monsoon (June to September) of 2026 is likely to be below normal and is likely to be around 90 to 95 per cent of the long term average (LPA).
According to the long-range forecast issued by the IMD, seasonal rainfall over the entire country is expected to be around 92 per cent of the LPA, with an error of plus-minus 5 per cent.
According to the IMD, the long term average (LPA) of seasonal rainfall in the country based on the period from 1971 to 2020 is 87 cm. The department will release updated forecast for monsoon in the last week of May.
On the sea surface temperature (SST) situation, IMD said that at present the weak La Nina-like condition in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is turning into ENSO-neutral condition. However, according to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), El Nino conditions may develop during the southwest monsoon.
El Niño and La Niña, which fall within the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle, affect global weather by changing sea surface temperatures and trade winds. El Nino (warm phase) weakens winds and increases ocean temperatures, which can lead to drought in Asia, while La Niña (cool phase) causes stronger winds and lower ocean temperatures.
IMD also said that at present the position of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Indian Ocean is neutral, but it is likely to become positive by the end of the monsoon.
According to the department, sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific and Indian Ocean have a major impact on the Indian monsoon, hence these are being continuously monitored.
–IANS
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