India is unlikely to accept the demand for extradition of the former Prime Minister after his death sentence, this is likely to sour the relations between the two countries.
A crowd had gathered outside the Dhaka court on the morning of 17 November. However, the decision against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was already decided. Yet, when Bangladesh’s International Criminal Tribunal (ICT) announced the death sentence, there was applause. The youth, who had led the protests last year, distributed sweets, hugged each other and described the verdict as pending justice against Hasina, who is accused of ordering the massacre of her countrymen.
Hasina, the 78-year-old daughter of Bangladesh founder Bangabandhu Mujibur Rahman, was convicted of crimes against humanity in her absence. Asaduzzaman Khan, the then Home Minister, was also sentenced to death. After hearing the verdict, lawyers and the victim’s family members celebrated inside the court. It is ironical that Hasina had formed the ICT to prosecute those who supported Pakistan during the 1971 independence war. The opposition of that time called it Kangaroo Court. Now Awami League supporters have started saying the same about ICT.
Hasina’s reaction to the decision was sharp. He called it “biased and politically motivated” and a “rigged operation by an unelected government with no democratic mandate.” After the decision, Bangladesh has once again demanded India to hand over Hasina. It was argued that India is bound to extradite under the 2013 extradition treaty. But New Delhi is unlikely to do this.
crowd outside the court
Retired diplomat Ashok Sajjanhar says, “In the geopolitical context, there is no compulsion for India to extradite Hasina. The current government of Bangladesh has supporters of Pakistan and they had worked against Bangladesh’s freedom struggle in 1971. India can never bow down to their demands.”
Sajjanhar says, “Legally, India has many conditions and exemptions to refuse an extradition request. The process of extradition is very difficult, complex and time-consuming. The country demanding extradition will have to provide a lot of court documents so that the authorities can take an informed decision.” This may drag on for years. “The death penalty is not in favor of Bangladesh,” says Pinak Ranjan Chakraborty, India’s former ambassador to Dhaka. This will widen the existing cracks. The atmosphere in Bangladesh is against India because people consider New Delhi to be supportive of Hasina. Hasina believes that the elections of 2014, 2018 and 2024 were fair, while people believe that they were rigged.
Polarization is sharp in Bangladesh. Since the beginning, the politics there has been divided between those fighting for independence from Pakistan and those opposing it, like groups like Jamaat-e-Islami. The murder of Hasina’s father Mujibur Rahman and 14 members of his family in 1975 was due to a strong grudge against the Bangladesh establishment.
Those wounds never healed. No reconciliation took place. When Hasina came to power, she hanged the Jamaat leaders to the relief of the families demanding justice. This polarization continued throughout Hasina’s long tenure from 2009 to 2024. He banned Jamaat, thousands of political opponents were jailed and protests were suppressed. His government was focusing on giving special benefits to the families associated with the freedom movement. The last straw was when Hasina tried to bring reservation for them in government jobs. Anger over that decision came out openly and students raised their voice against the government action. What happened after that is now history.
However, Hasina’s rule was full of achievements. He did good work on the economy. The World Bank had placed Bangladesh among the fastest growing economies of the world in its 2023 report. Bangladesh, which was among the poorest countries till 2015, became a lower middle income country. But despite this prosperity, conditions of corruption and dictatorship persisted.
happiness after decision
India shares a 4,000 km border with Bangladesh, which is adjacent to its sensitive north-eastern region. Due to changing geopolitics, a new equation of powers has been created, in which Bangladesh has joined hands with Pakistan. The Awami League had kept Islamabad away in view of its history. But the new political regime that has emerged has shown speed in improving relations with Pakistan.
Smriti S. of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (MP-IDSA), a Delhi-based think-tank. Patnaik says, “Ever since the interim government of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was formed, visits by Pakistani army and intelligence officials have increased.” She adds, “Radicalism is on the rise in Bangladesh, so the fear of Islamic terrorist networks targeting India has become real.”
It is true that after Hasina’s coup, Islamic political groups have emerged with new vigor and have gained recognition. Many of these groups are preparing to contest elections next year and go to Parliament. Apart from Jamaat-e-Islami, more fundamentalist organizations have emerged such as Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh (HIB), which consists of Qaumi madrassa teachers and students. HIB held a large rally in Dhaka on 3 May, which revealed their growing influence and power to mobilize people. Groups like Al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent and IS Khorasan chapter are also present in the country.
Whatever government is in power in India, it has to take a stand against these groups. The Union Ministry of External Affairs is silent on Hasina’s death sentence. India is waiting until after the elections to start serious talks with Dhaka. India’s relations with the current government led by Yunus are cold. For the first time, the country’s National Security Advisor (NSA) Khalilur Rahman arrived in Delhi to attend the Colombo Security Conclave organized by India’s NSA Ajit Doval.
General elections are to be held in Bangladesh in February next year. At the moment, Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) seems to be the most organized party to win. Jamaat-e-Islami is also likely to get a good number of votes. During Hasina’s tenure, Jamaat was banned from contesting elections. Now the Election Commission has postponed the registration of Awami League. The government had banned all activities of the Awami League under the anti-terrorism law following the initial protests.
There is no clarity about the future of Awami League. “The Awami League will no longer be allowed to establish itself politically in Bangladesh,” Mahfooz Alam, former protest coordinator and now advisor on Information and Broadcasting, told The Daily Star. They will make concrete arrangements to ensure that the ban on the party remains in place. However, many people believe that the Awami League may re-emerge in a different form after a few years.
A political expert from Dhaka, speaking on condition of anonymity, says, “I doubt that the Awami League will be able to contest elections next year. But a party which still has the support of 20-25 per cent of the population cannot be kept out for long. The Awami League can run without Hasina or any of her family members.”
The second new party to compete with them is the National Citizen Party (NCP), which was started by the leaders of the student movement. NCP is popular, but it does not have an organization like BNP. It remains to be seen whether the February elections will give an opportunity to the new government to correct the country’s politics or everything will continue as before, because the shadows of 1971 are long in Bangladesh and Hasina’s death sentence has only prolonged these shadows. The country will be able to break out of the cycle of retaliation or enter a new period of prolonged instability. It all will depend on the political class of Bangladesh.
