The message from Dhaka is clear that neighboring relations with India are important for trade, mobility and stability of the region, but the era of special importance is over.
Ultimately, regional politics changed with the landslide victory of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the February 12 parliamentary elections. With 212 seats in the 299-member Parliament, Tariq Rahman-led BNP returned to power with a bang after almost two decades of political exile. The Awami League, which ruled for fifteen years under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, was banned from contesting elections. The Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance will sit in the opposition with 77 seats. The National Citizen Party, which emerged from the student movement that led to Hasina’s coup, could contest 30 seats and win only six. Now, to answer these questions, how the new government in Dhaka views its relations with India, China, Pakistan and America, the signals and diplomatic gestures coming from BNP sources will have to be read.
BNP’s massive victory is a strategic challenge for India. For fifteen years, New Delhi’s Eastern Neighborhood policy revolved around Sheikh Hasina. Hasina facilitated security cooperation, eased movement in the North-East and did not provide shelter to rebel groups. In return, India continued to provide full political support and maintain silence on the continuing erosion of democratic institutions in Bangladesh. Now the new regime in Dhaka is indicating that relations will have to be built afresh in view of the new realities. The first indication came within 48 hours of the election results. BNP announced to talk about the extradition of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from India. However, BNP reiterated its promise to maintain friendly and respectful relations with India.
This is a deliberate diplomatic move, aimed at sending a message to the people of the country that justice is their priority for the killings that took place in July 2024, in which more than 1,400 protesters were killed. At the same time, it also has to leave scope for talks with New Delhi. The BNP knows that extradition is a legally difficult and politically sensitive matter. But by raising a formal demand, it put the onus on India to respond. High on the BNP’s agenda is stopping “border killings” by India’s Border Security Force and renegotiating the Ganga Water Treaty before December 2026. BNP sources indicated that Dhaka would try to conclude the pact in a “legitimate” manner, marking a departure from the previous arrangement, which many in Bangladesh viewed as being biased towards India.
Despite these issues of conflict, there is no indication of direct hostility towards Dhaka. The BNP has promised continued cooperation on counter-terrorism, resolution of the Teesta water dispute and security of Hindu minorities based on the principles of “equality” and “mutual respect”. The message from Dhaka is clear that India is an inescapable neighbor which is essential for trade, mobility and regional stability. But the era of mutual respect is over. The new relationship will be based on practical terms of give and take and equality, and not one-sided like the previous government. The meaning of the demand for extradition, the initial indication of bargaining talks, can be understood.
Again, India is a difficult neighbour, so China provides strategic security. The BNP’s relationship with Beijing goes back a long way, even before the party was founded. Ziaur Rahman established diplomatic relations with China in 1975, shortly after Bangladesh’s independence, and between 1975 and 1980, China provided 78 percent of Bangladesh’s arms.
That historical relationship has been kept in mind before this election. In 2025, at the invitation of the Communist Party of China, a large BNP delegation went to Beijing, met with CPC Politburo members and discussed cooperation between the two countries. A few weeks before the elections in January 2026, Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen met with Tariq Rahman to discuss “China-Bangladesh relations and party-to-party cooperation”. Between 2016 and 2022, China invested about $26 billion in Bangladesh, mostly under the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes infrastructure projects such as the modernization of Mongla Port. The BNP government will probably move towards increasing Chinese investment.
BNP leaders saw China as a hedge against greater dependence on India. Tariq Rahman’s “Bangladesh First” foreign policy points towards diverse partnerships rather than aligning with any single power. India was also invited to Tariq’s oath ceremony and during that time Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla had gone to Dhaka. However, a BNP government can maintain close defense ties with China and also rapprochement with Pakistan. The rulers of Pakistan immediately congratulated BNP on the victory. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif “expressed his desire to strengthen bilateral relations with Bangladesh to advance the common goals of peace, stability and development in South Asia.”
This diplomatic warmth has come after taking concrete steps towards normalizing relations. Since the 2024 rebellion, both countries have resumed maritime trade and increased trade. During Bangladesh’s recent standoff with India over cricket, when the Bangladesh Cricket Board requested not to hold its T20 World Cup matches in India and the ICC removed Bangladesh from the tournament, Pakistan was quick to show solidarity. Initially Pakistan boycotted its match against India, then withdrew the boycott at the request of Bangladesh. This initiative of Pakistan gives many signals for Dhaka. It asserts Bangladesh’s strategic autonomy vis-à-vis India, opens up new economic opportunities and connects with domestic voters who value better relations with the Islamic world. But there are risks in that too.
Amidst these regional changes, Washington has taken rapid steps to strengthen its position. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio congratulated the BNP and Tariq Rahman on their victory and said the US looks forward to engaging with the newly elected government of Bangladesh to advance regional prosperity and security. This public warmth comes after months of stagnation. During the election campaign, America had bet not only on BNP but also on Jamaat-e-Islami. Obviously, America does not want Bangladesh to side with China. Given Beijing’s billion-dollar investment and BNP’s long-standing ties with China, Washington considers a strong diplomatic presence in the Bay of Bengal region necessary to protect its strategic interests. For Dhaka, the relationship with the US provides strategic depth, which helps balance the influence of both India and China. Now America has also signed an agreement with Bangladesh, in which there will be zero tariff on textile exports if cotton is imported from there. Till now Bangladesh used to buy cotton mostly from India.
However, the biggest challenges for the new government are domestic. The protesters who overthrew Hasina in 2024 had taken to the streets over the employment crisis. Lakhs of youth were facing the brunt of unemployment. BNP’s election manifesto promises to create five million new jobs and a trillion dollar economy by 2040. But the structural problems are scary: slow growth, foreign exchange pressure, inflation, unemployment and a crisis in exports. Restoring investor confidence, making necessary reforms to IMF conditions and stabilizing the currency will test the administrative capabilities of the new government.
It will also be difficult to ensure the security of religious minorities by preserving BNP’s old relations with Islamic groups. A modest failure to stop communal violence against Hindu minorities will have ripple effects across the border, damaging relations with India. According to Tariq Rahman, the foreign policy will be of “Bangladesh First”. That means it will allegedly neither be anti-India, nor pro-China, nor associated with Washington or Islamabad. It is the principle of relationships based on strategic autonomy, diverse partnerships, mutual respect and equality. Now it remains to be seen what the coming months bring.
(The author is a Dhaka-based journalist. Views are personal)
