Nobody knows what the Indo-US relationship will take, but it is certain that India cannot trust America on time-oriented
Now Washington is demanding New Delhi to curb oil purchase from Russia at a discounted rate and decide the foreign policy accordingly. Will India bow down or will trust the old friend Russia and improve relations with rival neighboring China? Will the Indo-US relations be able to escape from Trump’s attack, especially when Trump enemies are joining hands with Pakistan? Is India actually stuck in the fight between America and Russia or something else? India called Tariff “inappropriate, irrational and impractical”, as both the European Union and the US continue to buy some items from Russia. And what about China, the biggest importer of dandruff oil? The US has not targeted Beijing for this.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who introduced the image of a strong, nationalist and deciding leader, is facing a dilemma. His foreign policy and very personal style of diplomacy are being questioned. If they bow, there is a danger of a huge political response in their domestic politics, but turning the mouth can increase stress. Trump’s critics in the US, New Delhi and Washington are questioning their negligence towards the relationship between the two sides. The relationship began with Bill Clinton’s historic visit to 2000 and proceeded with civil nuclear deal, defense agreements, technical partnerships and political goodwill. But now the quad is also being questioned by a group of questions, which is a group of America, India, Australia and Japan and is designed to combat China’s aggressive activities in the South China Sea and the Great Hind-Pacific region. There is still doubt about whether Trump will come to India for the Quad Summit to be held later this year. The irony is that America’s inclination towards India was to balance India against China’s growing challenge for American power in Asia.
“Trump has caused great damage to the US-India relations by reviving partnership with exile, tariffs and Pakistan,” says Ian Hall of Griffith University, Australia. But I think in terms of Russian oil, tariff is a strategy to pressurize India for a trade agreement. Trump is not serious about forcing Russia to compromise on Ukraine or at least he is not ready to do it, which will be necessary for it. And even if Russian President Vladimir Putin ends the war, Trump will still keep pressure with India to reduce his trade deficit.
The Modi government, which had a close relationship with Israel and the United States, was gradually leaning towards the West, although it stood in support of Russia during the Ukraine War. But since Trump’s tariff was imposed, India has been changing its policies.
National security advisor Ajit Doval’s recent visit to Moscow and his much -transmitted meeting with Putin, after a conversation between Modi and Putin. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has become Moscow last week and was in Delhi to discuss the border with Wang Yi Doval of China. The Prime Minister is going to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit held at Tianjin. This will be his first visit after the 2020 military confrontation. India is gradually restoring relations with China, which cools down after the Galvan Valley. But the mistrust between India and China will not go away until the final solution to the border is done. Therefore, western countries are unlikely to decrease the fear of India being involved in the Russia-China-Iran faction.
Where did the mistake come from India?
In the presidential elections held last November, many countries from all over the world were apprehensive in the presidential elections held last November. Unlike other governments, India was not worried about Trump becoming President for the second time. Finally, Modi and Trump celebrated their friendship with the ‘Houdi Modi’ program held in the presence of an American leader in Houston. Modi also repaid this honor by organizing a ‘Namaste Trump’ rally in his home state Ahmedabad. The atmosphere in Delhi remained enthusiastic even when Trump sidelined Modi at his second swearing -in ceremony by ignoring Modi at his second swearing -in ceremony.
Apparently India failed to understand that Trump’s second term was very different from his previous term. Now they are full of confidence. This time they know how the system works. He has included only loyalists, who are willing to make changes in the rules if needed.
Modi was among the first people to meet Trump in his second term. At the end of the journey, the two countries announced that negotiations on bilateral trade agreement would soon begin and a framework could be announced by autumn.
Five round of talks began in both the capitals, but the agreement remained stuck. Trump started by imposing a 25 percent fee on Indian goods entering the US and then imposed an additional 25 percent fee on purchasing Russian oil.
The attitude of Trump we will win makes the conversation difficult. Negotiations on the US demand were stopped that India bought more maize, chicken, soy and dairy products from America. The loyal Maga (Make America is part of the Great Again) supporters of Mecca and Dairy farmer Trump, so the pressure from Washington is the highest. No Indian Prime Minister is in a position to do so without paying a political price.
This is just one aspect of the tariff story. Another disappointing thing for Trump was that India rejected his role as a peacekeeper between India and Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. The Modi government pushed Trump’s right to boast. Pakistan cleverly accepted the role of Trump and promoted his ego by nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump showed his warmth towards Pakistan and broke the protocol and invited Field Marshal Asim Munir on lunch at the White House. Since then, the US and Pakistan have signed an agreement on oil mining and the US has also promised to invest in Pakistan’s oil sector.
On June 17, a day before lunch with Munir, Trump wanted Modi to stop Washington while returning from Canada, where he went to attend the G-7 summit. Modi refused, causing Trump’s disappointment.
Despite India’s refusal, Trump claimed to be a peacemaker. It is well known that Trump is crazy about the Nobel Prize and prefers to present himself as a person who can stop the war. In his inaugural speech on January 20, he said, “My most glorious heritage will be to unite and everyone.”
The US had earlier intervened during the India-Pakistan conflicts. Clinton persuaded Nawaz Sharif to stop the Kargil war. In 2019, when the Indian pilot Abhinandan was caught by Pakistan, the Trump administration persuaded Imran Khan to send him back. So when India knows about Trump’s tendency to claim victory, the government could ignore it.
India’s options
India is in a difficult situation and its options are limited. One way is that India should sit quietly and wait for Trump’s term to end. But the economy will have to pay a heavy price for this step.
Doing Trump not to agree to the Indian economy will be a heavy price for the Indian economy, and the business lobby is already warning the government of serious consequences. Practical people within the government believe that India will have to stop buying Russian oil. India’s relations with Russia are such that Moscow will understand Delhi’s compulsion and political relations will continue. It is very easy to interact on 25 percent of tariffs as India is opening a part of its agricultural sector for American maize and some dairy products. India will have to buy more oil and defense equipment from the US to please Trump.
India cannot fully trust America as a reliable partner at the time of need. There is a lack of trust between the two countries and the relationship is at the lowest level since 2000.
