America’s actions in Venezuela may fuel China’s ambitions to take over Taiwan
The US violated Venezuela’s sovereignty by attacking it without any provocation. Most importantly, it has committed a grave violation of the UN Charter and international law by kidnapping President Maduro to stand trial in the US.
America had been threatening military action against Venezuela for some months. Deploying a large naval fleet in the Gulf of Mexico. Destroying many ships and boats operating in the international waters of the Caribbean islands and killing people on the alleged accusation that they were carrying drugs to the United States.
Despite these warning signs, no one had predicted that the US would directly attack Venezuela and kidnap President Maduro. It was speculated that the US would want to intimidate the Venezuelan leadership through military pressure and perhaps promote regime change in the country. But, America carefully prepared the military operation and succeeded in kidnapping Maduro from his military base.
The ideological basis of the Venezuela operation was laid out in the US National Security Strategy 2025 document, which revived the 19th century Monroe Doctrine. The US stance is that the Western Hemisphere is America’s strategic backyard, from which foreign powers, especially China and Russia, will be kept out. This is a reminder of the imperialist thinking of the past and dividing the world into poles. In fact, it amounts to a rejection of the United Nations Charter and the international order established after the Second World War.
Trump has announced that the US will now rule Venezuela and that major military action will be taken if Maduro’s replacement, former Vice President Delsey Rodriguez, does not cooperate. They have shown no hesitation in laying claim to Venezuelan oil. He said it belonged to the United States because American companies had developed oil fields, which were later nationalized by Venezuela. Trump has acknowledged that he was in contact with American oil companies before and after the invasion of Venezuela, which he claims will restore the country’s damaged oil infrastructure.
Venezuela’s oil reserves are the largest in the world. If they were added to US reserves, the US would become the most dominant player in the global oil market. This will hugely benefit American oil companies, which are considered to be the biggest donors to Trump and the Republican Party. It is no surprise that Trump used the slogan “Drill Baby Drill” in his inaugural address.
Trump has also made very aggressive statements against the President of Colombia, whom he accuses of drug trafficking into the US. Now they are also threatening Colombia with military action. The renewed discussion on the Monroe Doctrine is a challenge for all of Latin America. America has already intervened several times to control or change the governments there. Today, the political and economic environment in Latin America has changed. China has become a major economic partner of almost all Latin American countries, and has invested significantly in the continent’s mineral resources.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio argues why China, Russia and Iran should enter the American continent, why China and Iran should buy Venezuelan oil. This argument also raises the question why America should interfere in Asia or be present in the countries bordering Russia, and why the countries of the Western Hemisphere cannot sell goods to whomever they want. Those countries have their own development aspirations; They need investment; They are rich in resources, which they want to develop and sell to the world. These countries are members of WTO along with America, China and Russia. Some of them are also members of APEC or APEC along with America, China and Russia. Will America now oppose APEC and deny those countries the benefits of WTO?
Spain issued a joint statement along with Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Colombia and Uruguay, calling the US military action a violation of “fundamental principles of international law, notably the prohibition on the use of force and respect for territorial sovereignty enshrined in the UN Charter”. It has been said that “this American action sets a dangerous precedent for peace and regional security and poses a threat to the common people.” However, Argentina has welcomed the American action.
As expected, Russia and China raised this in the UN Security Council and strongly condemned the US action. The Union of African Nations, Singapore, Malaysia, Ghana have issued strong statements. Qatar has also criticized. India’s response has been muted, avoiding direct criticism of US actions to be in line with its position on Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. It limited itself to expressing “deep concern” over the incidents and chose not to mention violations of the UN Charter and international law. It could and should do this, especially to establish its identity as the voice of the Southern Hemisphere.
The countries of Europe, as NATO allies, are in a big dilemma, because the US action completely weakens the European perspective on Russia’s interference in Ukraine. Additionally, Trump is reiterating his territorial claims on Greenland. Germany and Britain dodged questions about their stance on Trump’s actions, while the French president has supported him. The EU’s stance has been ambiguous.
This question is absolutely legitimate that if the US can attack Venezuela and abduct its head of state without any provocation and in defiance of the UN Charter and international law, does this not open the way for China to achieve its objective by using force in Taiwan?
China’s claims on Taiwan are quite different from America’s claims on Venezuela. America does not consider Venezuela as its part. He has no regional ambitions. He wants to grab Venezuela’s oil and other resources of the country. Geopolitically, Venezuela is not a significant way for the US to expand its power in the larger region. The geopolitical stakes are very different for all sides in Taiwan.
China is already intimidating Taiwan by conducting aggressive military exercises. He has repeatedly made it clear that he will take back Taiwan through peace or by force if necessary. If China uses force, it will have to confront America’s large military presence in the area, America’s defense commitments to Taiwan, its own military capabilities, Japan’s reaction, etc. China will have to carefully calculate the balance of power in that region, the global reaction and the impact of Western sanctions, etc. In the case of Venezuela, America faced no such problem. China cannot imitate America by claiming that East Asia belongs to it. He does not have the option of kidnapping the President of Taiwan to impose his will on the island.
In such a situation, China will wait for the right time. Its illegal actions in Venezuela seriously undermine the US case for a rules-based order globally, and especially in the South and East China Seas, but for China the issue is not to win the moral debate but to assess whether it can get away with using force illegally against Taiwan.
(The author is a former Foreign Secretary. Views are personal)
