Mumbai, May 17 (IANS). In the current calendar year i.e. 2026, crude oil prices are expected to be between 90 to 110 dollars per barrel. The reason for this is the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the low possibility of an agreement between America and Iran soon. This information was given in a report released by Moody’s.
Global ratings agency Moody’s said that even if safe traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes in the next six months, supply in the oil market will remain limited. Energy prices will remain high and volatile, which could impact costs, demand and funding costs.
“We estimate that Brent crude prices will remain in the $90-110 per barrel range for most of this year, with considerable volatility, and could occasionally break out of this range in response to new developments,” Moody’s said in the report.
Moody’s said transit flows would gradually improve, but through bilateral channels rather than through a full reopening. This would allow some gradual improvement in energy transit flows from the current near zero, but the process would be slow, opaque and full of disruptions.
“We expect oil importing countries – particularly China, India, Japan and Korea – to negotiate transit bilaterally with Iran,” the report said.
However, the report said a return to pre-conflict levels of traffic is unlikely in 2026.
Moody’s said the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz poses a structural supply disruption to global energy flows, not a temporary supply crisis.
The report also states that the disruption is expected to continue until autumn.
Moody’s also warned that continued rising energy prices and shortages of energy products will lead to increased inflation.
Moody’s estimates that inflation in India will average 4.5 percent in 2026, up from its earlier estimate of 3.5 percent.
–IANS
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