Bihar Election 2025 Phase 1 Analysis: In the first phase of voting of Bihar Assembly elections held on 06 November 2025, everyone from common citizens to big leaders participated enthusiastically, and the voting process took place peacefully, but at some places some incidents of tension and controversy also came to light… which is not a big deal. Controversy is common in an election environment. Voting was held on a total of 121 seats in the first phase, and around 60.13% voting was recorded till 5 pm. After the final figures come, this percentage is expected to reach 63 to 65%.
After the elections, people are now waiting for the second phase of voting, which will be held on 11 November 2025. During this time, questions have started rising in everyone’s mind as to what is going to be the result of this election. You will also have the same question in your mind…! Only after the first phase of voting, people have started speculating that in whose hands will be the reins of power in Bihar this time? Before knowing the answer to this question, you will have to consider some things.
An interesting factor hidden in this year’s Bihar elections is the unprecedented participation of women and the purification of more than 60 lakh fake votes under Special Intensive Revision (SIR). Together, these two have given a completely new color to the voting pattern this time.
‘SIR Logic’ of increase in voting percentage
This time in Bihar, about 60 lakh fake or inactive votes were removed under Special Intensive Revision (SIR), which included the names of dead, duplicate and bogus voters. This is the reason why this time the voting percentage seems to have increased, whereas in ground reality the voting remained ‘normal’. According to analysts, if this voter list had not been clear, the total percentage could have remained the same as before. Therefore, this time’s ‘bumper voting’ figure is actually the effect of cleaning the system, and not a sign of extraordinary public enthusiasm.
Women voters become the deciding factor
According to the information so far, like some previous elections, this time too women cast more votes than men. The reason for this is that traditionally in Bihar, a large number of men migrate outside for jobs, due to which there was increased activity among women voters. If this time the voting of women is 3% or more than that of men, then it can prove to be a decisive lead in favor of NDA.
Both CM Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have launched many schemes for the ’empowerment’ of women such as – Kushal Yuva Yojana, Jeevika Group, Cycle Scheme and Mahila Swavalamban Programme. The impact of these schemes has been clearly seen on rural women voters. Political analysts believe that voters above 55 years of age and women can become the ‘silent vote bank’ this time, which can be helpful in bringing Nitish Kumar back to power.
Tejashwi Yadav’s challenge is big.. but vote base is limited
RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav is strongly involved with his MY equation (Muslim-Yadav). His core vote bank remained stable at around 34% to 36%. However, if we look outside this equation, RJD’s penetration among the castes has been limited. At the same time, a large part of VIP party and Nishad community has gone with RJD this time, but it is difficult to say at the moment how much its impact will be on the level of seats.
On the other hand, the influence of Jan Swaraj Party (Prashant Kishore) also appeared limited. In many seats its candidates were seen playing only the role of ‘vote katwa’. At some places this influence is hurting RJD and at some places NDA.
Dalit and backward voters- still with NDA
Among the Dalit voters of Bihar, about 65 to 70% are inclined towards NDA. However, a part of the Ravidas community has moved towards Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). This time BSP seems to be fighting strongly on 4 to 5 seats, but has not been able to create any major equation at the state level.
Political heat due to ‘burqa controversy’ in the first phase of voting
During the first phase of voting, a controversy arose over the identity of women voters who came to a booth wearing a burqa. The pro-NDA candidate asked to remove the burqa and show his identity, after which a tense situation was created there. What happened next… This matter immediately went viral on social media. The heated exchange between Maulanas and BJP leaders intensified.
Union Minister Giriraj Singh made a sharp comment on this and said, “This is not Pakistan, if you cast fake votes then you will have to remove the burqa.” His statement further increased the political temperature, although JDU and Chirag Paswan’s party distanced themselves from it. The Election Commission took immediate action and ordered that the identity verification of women voters would be done only by women Asha workers and Anganwadi workers.
Tejashwi vs Tej Pratap
Amidst the elections, another new case also remained in the headlines. Rabri Devi blessed her two sons Tejashwi Yadav and Tej Pratap Yadav for victory. This happened for the first time that Rabri Devi openly supported Tej Pratap. On this many people said that Rabri Devi’s love has awakened. At the same time, in front of Tej Pratap from Mahua seat is the current RJD MLA Roshan Kumar, for whom Tejashwi himself had come to campaign. This has openly exposed the rift within the party.
Tej Pratap Yadav said, “If we get a chance, we will also become the Chief Minister of Bihar.” Now only after this statement, political observers are considering it as a sign of internal tussle in the Yadav family, which can have a deep impact on the election results.
District wise status of first phase voting
district voting percentage
Begusarai 67%
Sheikhpura 52%
Bhojpur 53%
Buxar 55%
Darbhanga 58%
Gopalganj 65%
Khagaria 60–62%
Madhepura 65%
Muzaffarpur 64%
Nalanda 58%
Patna 55%
Samastipur 66%
Saharsa 62%
Saran 60%
Siwan 57%
Vaishali 60%
Overall, the average turnout has been more than 60%.
Current scenario of political equations
NDA ,
– The alliance of Nitish Kumar’s JDU and BJP is still strong.
– His support among women and voters aged 60+ is stable.
– Anti-incumbency is very low.
RJD alliance –
– Till now Tejashwi Yadav’s core voter base is intact, but its expansion is limited.
– There is a possibility of loss due to internal strife and ‘vote cutting’ parties like Jan Swaraj.
Jan Swaraj (PK) –
– Influential in some seats, but limited impact at large.
Owaisi’s AIMIM –
– Impact on 3 to 5 seats, but not a big factor at the state level.
Now… women votes and elderly voters will decide the direction of Bihar
If understood seriously, the first phase of Bihar elections 2025 has made it clear that this time the result will not be based on emotional but socio-economic factors. Only the peaceful response of women and elders will now decide whether Nitish Kumar will remain in power even after 20 years or… Tejashwi Yadav will be able to try his luck in the chair of power for the first time…
At present, it is being indicated that there is no fake wind in Bihar, but a mathematics is going on, which will be revealed very soon.
